泛读教程4--Is_Weather_Getting_Worse

Is Weather Getting Worse?

课文一

天气正越变越糟？

Weather seems getting worse and wilder since "Mother

Nature is full of surprises these days". Global warming, a

heated topic of today, is often taken for granted to be

responsible for the harsh weather. However, scientists, like

Kevin E. Trenberth, are cautious in making their judgment.

Please read the following article and find out what role El

Niňo and La Niňa play.

因为“这些日子大自然母亲充满着意想不到的事情”，看起来天气在越变越糟，越来越狂野。全球变暖是现在的热门话题，常常理所当然地被看成恶劣气候的罪魁祸首。但是，凯

文·E·川伯斯这样的科学家在下定 As you read this, flip your eyes over to the window. The

论时态度谨慎。请阅读以下文章，看sky is clear, the wind light, and the sun brilliant. Or maybe

一看厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象所起的not － Mother Nature is full of surprises these days. The

作用。

calendar says it's spring, but there could just as easily be a

winter blizzard, a summer swelter, or an autumn cold snap

当你阅读本文时，请把目光轻快on the other side of that glass pane. Almost in an instant, it

地投向窗外。天空澄净，微风轻拂，seems, the weather shifts from one season to another. And

日光明媚。也许并不是这样——这些wherever it swings, it seems increasingly likely to be

日子， 大自然母亲充满着意想不到extreme.

的事情。日历上说现在是春天，但窗 Consider what Mother Nature slung our way last year in 外完全可能是一场冬季的暴风雪，一May, typically the second worst month for tornadoes. In less 阵夏日的酷暑或一股秋天的寒流。几than 24 hours, more than 70 hellholes of wind rampaged 乎是在一瞬之间，气候就好象从一个through Oklahoma and Kansas, killing 49 and causing more 季节转到了另一个季节。而且不管天than $1 billion in damages. In June, it was heat, as the 气转向何方，它看起来变得越来越极端。

Northeast began roasting through weeks of the worst

drought since the 1960s; 256 people died. This year in

想想看去年五月大自然母亲都给January, blizzards pounded the U.S. from Kansas to the

我们带来了些什么，那是第二个遭受Atlantic Ocean. In April, 25 inches of snow fell on parts of

龙卷风袭击最严重的月份。在不到二New England.

十四小时之内，七十多个“地狱”风 Why has our weather gone wild? It's the question 暴在俄克拉何马和堪萨斯州横行肆everyone's asking, but a very tough one to answer. Although 虐，造成49人死亡以及十多亿美元many scientists still aren't convinced that it has gone wild, 的损失。六月，天气酷热，东北部连some have begun saying － cautiously, hesitantly － that 续几周在热浪下炙烤，遭受了自六十extreme weather events are occurring with more frequency 年代以来最严重的旱情，256人丧生。than at any time in this century, events consistent with the 今年一月，暴风雪横扫美国，从堪萨profile of a warming world. "Global warming is real," says 斯州直至大西洋沿岸。四月，新英格Kevin E. Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section of 兰部分地区下的雪厚达二十五英

the Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

吋。

"The mean temperatures are going up. The key question is:

为什么我们的天气变得如此狂What will it do locally? I think we're going to start feeling its

野？这是每个人都在问的问题，但是effects in the changes on extremes."

很难回答。虽然许多科学家仍然不相 That doesn't mean you can indict weird weather in your 信天气已经失控，但有些人——虽然neck of the woods as proof. Mother Nature knows how to 态度谨慎，仍存疑虑——已经开始

hide her tracks. She hurls a torrential downpour today and a

drought tomorrow followed by gentle rain the next week.

To understand a pattern in natural variability, you can't look

into the sky; you have got to study data. And for a host of

reasons, that isn't easy.

说，与本世纪任何时段相比，极端性天气出现的频率愈加频繁，这与全球变暖的量变曲线是吻合的。凯文·E·川伯斯是设在科罗拉多州博耳德市的大气研究中心气候分析部的主任，他说：“全球变暖是事 But tallying up the damage is. In the last 20 years, this

实。”“平均气温在上升。但关键问country has been whacked by $I70 billion worth of

它会给具体地区带来什么？我weather-related disasters － hurricanes, droughts, floods,

题是，天and tornadoes. Thirty-eight severe weather events occurred

认为我们已开始感受到它的影响，气的变化趋于极端。”

in a single decade, between 1988 and 1999; seven events

occurred in 1998 alone － the most for any year on record.

这并不意味着你可以用某一有限 Globally, insurance companies are calling it a

区域的怪异天气作为控诉的证据。大"catastrophe trend". In a report issued last December,

自然母亲知道该如何隐藏她的行踪。Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurer, or insurer of

她今天猛地来一场倾盆大雨，明天是insurance companies, noted that the number of natural

disasters has increased more than fourfold since the 1950s.

干旱，紧接着是一周柔柔细雨。你不Earthquakes, which are not weather-related, caused nearly

能靠察看天象来了解自然变化的模式，你必须得研究数据。但由于种种half the deaths in those catastrophes; storms, floods, and

原因，这并不容易。

other weather woes killed the other half. In 1999, the

但是计算一下灾害损失却是容易的。过去的二十年里，我们这个国家 In its five-point list of causes for increased damage

claims, Munich Re blamed population growth first, climate

与气候相关的灾难——飓风、干旱、洪水及龙卷风——造成了高达一千change fifth. Critics may well seize upon this to diminish

仅1988年至1999claims that the weather is getting worse, but taken together,

七百亿美元的损失。年这十年间就发生了38起严重的气it's a more frightening picture. Thanks to swelling

populations in cities and along coastal areas, more of Earth's

候事件，仅1998年就有7起气候事

passengers are living in the wrong place at the wrong time.

件，这是有史以来受灾最多的一年。number of catastrophes worldwide hit 755, surpassing the

record of 702 set only the year before.

从全球范围来看，保险公司把天气 Still, the statistics meteorologists have collected on

变暖称为“灾难趋势”。世界最大的extreme weather events aren't enough to prove that the

即为保险公司提供保险的weather is getting worse. By their very definition, extreme

再保险商，events happen infrequently, and no one has been collecting

墨尼黑再保险公司在去年十二月份scientifically sound data long enough to know how common

发行的一份报告中指出，自20世纪they are. For example, a storm that happens once a century

50年代以来，自然灾害的数量已经might require two millennia's worth of storm data to draw

增长了四倍有余。在这些灾难中，和conclusions. To top it off, the computer models scientists

气候无关的地震造成了近一半人的use to study climate crunch numbers on a scale of centuries

死亡；风暴、洪灾以及其它气候性灾at a time. "Ideally, you'd like data sets that go back several

难夺去了另一半人的生命。1999年，全世界的灾难数目达到755起， 超hundred years," says Philip Arkin, deputy director of the

过前一年才创下的702起的记录。

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction at

the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York. "But

they just don't exist. The U.S. data go back 50 years. Before 墨尼黑再保险公司在其列出的索World War II, it's very difficult to come up with good 赔要求日益增加的五点原因，认为人

numbers. We have some data on heavy rain events before

1900, but there's nothing useful."

口增长首当其冲，天气变化则列在第五。一些批评家也许会紧抓住这一点来 轻视天气正越变越糟的观点，但 Even if scientists could find good numbers, computer

综合起来考虑，这是幅更可怕的画resolution is still too coarse to be able to forecast how

面。幸亏人口增长主要在城市和沿海something as simple as warming might affect climate in

更多的“地球过客们”是在不specific spots on the globe. The smallest amount of space

地区，on land, sea, ice, and air that scientists can study is about the

适当的时间住在了不适当的地方。

size of Virginia. If they crank up the resolution by 50

percent to focus on an area half that size, they pay for it in

computing time － a calculation that took 10 days to

perform might now need three months.

尽管这样，气象学家收集的有关极端性气候事件的统计数据，还不足以证实天气正越变越糟。根据他们的 Keith Dixon, a research meteorologist at the National 定义，极端性气候事件并不经常发Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical 生，而没有人收集的可靠的科学数Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, recalls once he 据 ，在时间上长到足以弄清极端性was being asked precisely what global warming would mean 气候事件怎样的频率才算正常的问for state ski resorts. More snow? (Good.) Or more rain? 题。例如，一场百年一遇的风暴也许(Bad.) "I can understand why businesspeople or politicians 需要两千年间的风暴数据，才能得出ask. If you want to cut fuel, spend money, and make 结论。为了得出结论，科学家研究气decisions, you need to know why you should be doing this." 候所用的计算机模型每一次都需要Adds his colleague, Tom Knutson: "I can certainly 以世纪为级别来处理数据。纽约拉蒙sympathize with them. But we can't answer it."

特-多尔蒂地球观测站国际天气预报 Since 1995, the literature has suggested that there could

研究所副主任菲利普·阿尔金说，“理想的状况是，你最好拥有数百年be fewer frosts, more heat waves, more droughts, more

但根本就没有 这样的数据。intense rainfalls, tropical cyclones, and hurricanes in the 21st

的数据。美国有五十年前的数据。二战以前则century when and if CO2 levels double. But these

很难弄到理想的数据。我们有一些projections rank low on the confidence scale because

但派scientists cannot say definitively if and how the events might

1900年以前的暴雨灾害的数据，不上用场。”

occur.

All of which doesn't do the average citizen much good.

He doesn't worry about 30-to-100-year shifts in the climate.

What gets him is day-to-day weather: "This heat's killing

me." "Crops have failed here five years in a row." "There

have been three bad tornadoes in as many weeks." We live

in a society uniquely privileged to learn about weather

events － and to fear them. The Center for Media and

Public Affairs, a watchdog group based in Washington,

D.C., reports that media coverage of weather disasters more

than doubled from 1997 to 1998 alone.

即使科学家们能够找到可用的数 Probably as a result, people are starting to blame harsh

weather on global warming. Politicians are too. Jerry

Mahlman, director of the GFDL, advises the White House 新泽西国家海洋和大气局大气物on climate change. He remembers sitting in a conference 理流体动力学实验室气象学研究人with Vice President Gore, who asked: "Can we say that 员基思·迪克森回忆说，有一次有人据，但由于计算机演算解析率仍然太粗糙，无法预测象天气变暖这样一个如此简单的变化会对地球上某个特定地点的气候产生怎样的影响。科学家们在陆上、海上、冰层及大气中能够研究的最小的的范围，相当于弗吉尼亚州的大小。如果他们想研究上述一半大小的区域，提高50%的解析率，那么代价就是计算时间。先前十天的计算现在也许要三个月。

storms will be more extreme in the greenhouse-enhanced

earth?" The scientist didn't flinch as he replied, "No."

Gore's shoulders seemed to crumple.

Globally, the 1990s stood as the warmest decade for

which we have records. Scientists already predict that by

2100, Earth could warm up another 1.8 to 6.3 degrees

Fahrenheit. Most of us think heat when we think global

warming. Scientists think ice. They're worried about what

will happen when all that extra heat hits the ice at Earth's

poles. A dominant hypothesis says that the water cycle will

speed up: Heat will hasten ocean evaporation, and because

hot air can hold more moisture, it could all be whisked away

to rain more upon our heads.

Five years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, an international collaboration of 2 000 scientists,

theorized as much in a well-publicized 56-page report. That

same year, a team of scientists led by Tom Karl, now

director of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC),

studied 80 years of U.S. data and confirmed an increase in

extreme precipitation events, altered patterns of rain and

drought, and rising temperatures since 1970. But the

scientists cautioned that the study analyzed only 80 years of

data, confined itself to the United States － which

occupies a mere 2 percent of the globe － and found

nothing out of the realm of pure chance.

问全球变暖对各州的滑雪胜地具体意味着什么。会下更多的雪？（好。）或者雨量会增加？（不好。）“我明白为什么商人或政界人士要问这些问题。如果你要减少燃料、投资以及做决策，你得知道你为什么要做这些。”他的同事汤姆·克努特森补充说：“当然我很同情他们，但是我们无法回答这个问题。”

1995年以来，文献显示，二氧化碳的含量翻番时或如果翻番，那么21世纪则意味着霜冻减少，更多的热浪、旱灾，更多的降水、热带气旋和飓风。但是这些预测都底气不足，因为科学家不能肯定这些会不会发生以及如何发生。

这一切不能给普通公民带来什么实惠。他并不关心30-100年跨度的气候变化，他只在意每天的天气：“我要热死了。”“连续五年这儿的庄稼收成都不好。”“三周内刮了三次糟糕的龙卷风。”我们生活在这样一个社会中，有独一无二的特权来知悉天气事件----以及畏惧它们。设在华盛顿特区的一个监察组织媒体与公共 Within months came another, stronger piece of

real-world data, nailed down by one of the men caught in

事务中心报道说，仅1997至1998年一年间，媒体关于灾难性天气的报道that January snowstorm. Sifting through historical data,

就增加了一倍多。

Trenberth had found that more, longer, and stronger El

Niňos have occurred during the last 20 years than in the

也许结果就是，人们开始把恶劣previous 120 years. That was unusual, a chance of 1 in 2

政界人士同样000. El Niňo, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific

天气怪罪于全球变暖。大气物理流体动力学实验室主that induces storms and other climatic events, historically

如此。任杰里·马尔曼就天气变化为白宫occurs once every three to seven years and lasts for up to

two years. But even as Trenberth presented his findings at a

提供咨询。他记得有一次参加会议时，副总统戈尔问：“我们能说在地conference in Melbourne, Australia, the Pacific was

风暴experiencing an odd, double El Niňo: The first had lasted

球温室效应越发严重的情况下，就会变得更厉害吗？”他毫不畏缩from 1991 to 1993, a weaker one from 1994 to 1995.

地回答：“不能。”戈尔的肩膀似乎Trenberth floated an ideal past the audience in his native

New Zealand accent: Could this be due to global warming?

耷拉了下来。

20世纪90年代 The idea, Trenberth modestly recalls, caused something

从全球范围来看，是我们记录在案的最暖和的十年。科of a stir in the audience. Scientists found themselves

学家们已经预测，到2100年，地球wondering: What would happen if one of nature's storm

的温度还要再提高1.8°F-6.3°F。我

machines － not completely understood but still adhering 们中的大多数人一提到全球变暖就to rhythms as regular as the seasons － were pressed into 会想到热浪。科学家们想到的则是service by global warming?

冰。他们担心，一旦多余的热量袭击地球两极的冰，会发生什么情况。一 Archaeological evidence suggests El Niňo has been

around for thousands, possibly millions of years. A known

种主导的假设是，水循环将加快：热因为热空气可instigator of storms, floods, droughts, and secondary effects

量将加快海水的蒸发，就会朝我们的头上like fires, the El Niňo-Southern Oscillation could go a long

以含更多的湿气，降更多的雨。

way toward explaining many weather extremes. Under

normal circumstances, sea surface temperatures rise in the

tropical Pacific, fueling strong thunderstorms. Like a vast

climatic mailbag, El Niňo-enhanced activity hand-delivers

heat and moisture to parts of the globe where they would

not normally go. Contrasting cool ocean currents in the

Pacific can usher in the opposite phase, La Nina, which

tends to dry out the southwestern and South Central states.

La Niňa also makes weather conditions worse but rarely

bullies as harshly as El Niňo.

五年前，一个由两千名科学家组成的国际联合组织，跨政府的气候变迁专家小组，在一份长达五十六页、引起公众广泛注意的报告中也提出了这一理论。同年，现任国家气象数据中心（NCDC）主任的汤姆·卡尔领导一个科学家小组,对80年的美国数据进行了研究，证实自1970年以来，极端性降水事件有所增加，旱涝模式改变，气温升高。但科学家提醒 "The Americas are greatly affected by El Niňo,"

Trenberth says. "Europe is much less affected. If things do

说，该研究只分析了80年的数据，become more El Niňo-like, then it does have implications

且仅限于占全球2%面积的美国境没有从纯粹偶然王国中得出任何for different parts of the country. It means we're more likely

内，to have storms coming into southern California and going

东西。

across the south, at least in the winter-time. If 1998 was any 几个月之后又得到一份来自现实indication, you have to really watch out for the seasonal 世界的、更有力的数据，由一位经历change, where it can go from wet conditions to quite dry 了那场一月暴雪的人精确地提供。对conditions when the storm tracks move farther north."

历史数据进行筛选后，川伯斯发现过去的20年间，与这之前的120年相 In the early 1990s, El Niňo helped dry Indonesia and

other tropical Pacific climate and blister southern Africa, but

比，厄尔尼诺现象发生的次数更多，时间更长，强度更大。这可是不同寻it drenched California. Together Niňo and Niňa did a

number on the Americas. From 1992 to 1993: winter floods

常的1/2000的概率。厄尔尼诺是赤道附近的太平洋周期性变暖现象，引in California. In 1993: flooding in the Mississippi Basin,

drought in the Carolinas. From 1994 to 1995: more floods

发风暴和其它气 候事件，历史上每持续时间可长达in California. In 1996: drought in the South Central states,

三至七年发生一次，两年。但正当川伯斯在澳大利亚墨尔flooding in the Midwest.

本的一次会议上提交他的发现时，太 The strongest El Niňo on record, from 1997 to 1998,

registered water temperatures as high as nine degrees above

平洋正经历着一次反常的双厄尔尼第一次从1991年持续到1993normal. "A normal, run-of-the-mill El Niňo is about two or

诺现象：年，还有一次威力小一些，从1994three degrees Fahrenheit above normal," says Trenberth.

年持续到1995年。川伯斯带着他那"This one was nine, so it was a real granddaddy in that

向听众提出这样一respect." That was the year Hurricane Mitch left at least 11

新西兰家乡口音，个观点：这能否归因于地球变暖？

000 dead in Central America. The NCDC calls Mitch the

deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 1780.

川伯斯谦逊地回忆说，这个观点 Today Trenberth's hypothesis is high on the agenda in

在听众中引起了一层波澜。科学家们

such climate labs as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 不禁问自己：如果这一自然界中的风Laboratory in Princeton, the Max Planck Institute in 暴机器（虽然我们还不完全了解它，Hamburg, Germany, and others in England, Australia, 但它毕竟象季节一样有规律 地变Canada, and Japan. Says Lamont-Doherty's Arkin, "It would 动）为全球变暖的影响所左右，那么be hard to talk about extreme weather without considering 会发生什么？

his work." But Mahlman says: "It's a good hypothesis;

there's a shred of truth to it. But it still seems like a coin 考古学方面的证据表明，厄尔尼flip." Reviewing results in his lab in the foothills of the 诺已存在了数千年，或许数百万年。Rockies, Trenberth is the first to poke holes in his own 已知它激起风暴、洪水、干旱还有如work. "Part of the problem is that all the models tend to 火灾这样的副效应。厄尔尼诺向南摆give different answers to this question," he says, "But a lot 动的现象对解释许多极端天气现象of these models don't reproduce El Niňo very well in the 很有帮助。在通常情况下，赤道地区first place. So the confidence in what they're telling you is 的太平洋洋面温度升高，孕育强烈的undermined."

雷雨天气。厄尔尼诺增强了这一活动，它象一个巨大的气候邮包，亲手 Still, Trenberth believes we are likely in the coming

century to see ever longer El Niňos fluctuating with shorter

把热量和湿气带到平常并不光临的形成对照的太平洋中La Niňas. Weather, including bad weather, might therefore

地球部分地区。appear to be more fixed. "That's the main thing El Niňo or

的寒流，则会迎来一种相反的状况，它倾向于给西南和中南La Niňa does for you," he says, "It locks the patterns in. So

拉尼娜现象。拉尼娜现象同样会once you get into a dry regime, you stay in a dry regime. If

部各州带来干旱。但很少象厄尔尼诺you get into a wet regime, you stay in a wet regime. And so

使天气状况变糟，you tend to get these extremes － you get battered by one

现象那样横行霸道。

storm after another. Or else you get dry spells time after

川伯斯说：“南北美洲受厄尔尼time."

欧洲受的影响则 Baltimore residents may recall that they sweltered in last

诺现象影响很严重，要小得多。如果情况确实朝着厄尔尼summer's heat wave and drought only to be soaked by

诺方向发展，那么美国的不同地区都Hurricane Floyd whisking through in September.

会受到影响。这意味着风暴更可能直Scientifically, one cannot directly blame that mess on El

Niňo or global warming. "It was very regional," Trenberth

抵南加利福尼亚州、穿越美国南部，says, "There are a number of factors that go into that, part

至少在冬天会是这样。如果1998年那么现在你真得当心of which was La Niňa, part of which was what's going on in

只是初露端倪，风暴路径向北移动更远lots of other places around the world － except that if it

季节的变化，时，气候状况会从湿润变得相当干happens more and more in different places around the

world, the evidence mounts that something is pushing you

旱。”

in that direction. The global perspective is important with

regard to the global warming issue. Just watching things go

by locally can help to create the overall picture, but it

doesn't confirm it at all."

So, is the weather getting worse and wilder? Maybe.

在九十年代早期，厄尔尼诺现象Perhaps the best line on this topic was penned by the

助长了印度尼西亚和其它一些太平director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In

洋赤道气候区的干燥天气和发生在an article published last year, Mahalman wrote: "For me, the

南部非洲的庖病，但却给加利福尼亚indicate that we appear to be nudging noticeably

带来滂沱大雨。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜联

closer to the ‘smoking gun' demanded by people who

require very high levels of proof."

手给美国造成了一系列麻烦。1992年到1993年：冬天加利福尼亚洪水 Trenberth regards extreme weather as an analogue, a dry

泛滥。1993年：密西西比盆地受淹，南北卡罗来纳州 大旱。1994年至run to the future. And it isn't pretty. Droughts rob us of

1995年：加利福尼亚涝灾比以往严sustenance and leave us vulnerable to fire. In wet, warm

重。1996年：中南部各州遭受旱灾，conditions, insects thrive. The United Nation's World

中西部遭受洪灾。

Health Organization already reports that mosquitoes

carrying malaria and dengue fever have hit new highs in

Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In the United States, cycles

记录在案的势力最强的厄尔尼诺of rain and drought seven years ago permitted a deadly form

发生在1997-1998年，水温比正常时of pulmonary hantavirus, carried by mice, to flourish in the

期高了整整九度。川伯斯说：“普通的厄尔尼诺比正常时期高二至三华Southwest.

Handed a dress rehearsal, perhaps we should use it. We

氏度。这次是九度，在这点上，它可can develop strategies to cope. We can cultivate an interest

真是爷字辈的。”这年，飓风“米in the weather outside of our commutes. And we can shake

奇”在中美洲造成至少11,000人丧生。国家天气数据中心（NCDC）称the habit of sampling locally and extrapolating globally.

1780年以来杀伤力最大(2420 words) TOP

“米奇”是

的大西洋飓风。

现在，川伯斯的假说已被诸如普林斯顿大气物理流体动力学实验室、德国汉堡马克斯-普朗克研究所以及其它英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、日本的大气研究试验室列为重要议程。拉蒙特-多赫提研究所的阿尔金说：“不研究他所做的工作，就很难对极端性天气进行探讨。”而马尔曼则认为：“这是个不错的假说，里面有这么一点儿道 理。但看起来仍象抛硬币一样不确定。”川伯斯评论位于落基山脚下的试验室结果时，第一个指出了自己研究工作中的漏洞。他说：“问题的一部分是，所有的模式都倾向于对这一论题提出了不同的解释，但是许多模式首先不能很好地再现厄尔尼诺现象。所以你就对这些模式所告诉你的一切信心不足。”

然而，川伯斯相信，在即将到来的下个世纪里，更可能的情形是，我们会看到持续时间更长的厄尔尼诺与时间变短的拉尼娜波动发展的状况。天气形态，包括坏天气，因而可能会变得更稳定。他说：“这就是厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜给你带来的主要影

响 。”“它把气候形态固定下来。于是，一旦干燥天气占了主导地位，那就一直会是干燥气候，如果受潮湿天气控制，那就一直是湿润天气。所以往往就会出现极端天气————接踵而至的风暴。或者你会一再受干旱侵袭。”

巴尔的摩的居民也许还记得，去年夏天遭遇热浪和干旱，没想到整个九月却被“弗洛依德”飓风浸泡。科学地说，我们不能把这些直接归咎于厄尔尼诺或全球变暖。川伯斯说：“这完全是区域性的。 这里面有很多因素，部分因素是拉尼娜，部分因素来自世界上其它许多地方发生的事情。除非在世界范围内的不同地方，它发生的频率越来越频繁，积累的证据才会促使你往那个方向考虑。对于地球变暖这个话题，全球范围的视角是重要的。对地域性事件进行观测有助于勾勒出一幅全景图画，但是却并不能证明这图画。”

所以，天气是不是变得越来越糟，越来越狂野？或许吧。也许对这一话题做出最好概述的，是大气物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）主任马尔曼。在去年发表的一篇文章中，他写道：“就我看来，这些新数据表明...我们离那些要求很高层次证据的人所要求的‘确凿证据’，明显地已经越来越近。”

川伯斯认为，极端性天气是未来气候的类比和预演。前景并不美妙。干旱抢走了我们赖以生存的东西，使我们容易受火灾袭击。在湿润、温暖的情况下，昆虫会大量孳生。联合国世界卫生组织 已经报告说，携带疟疾和登革热的蚊子数目在拉丁美洲、非洲和亚洲又达新高。在美国，七年一次的旱涝周期循环，使一种由老鼠传播的肺汉滩川病毒在西南部猖獗起来。

给了我们一次彩排机会，或许我们应该利用它。我们可以制订应对的战略计划。我们可以培养对常规研究范围外的天气状况的兴趣。我们还可以摆脱用区域性取样调查的结论来进行全球推导的习惯。

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